CCTV News:The rapid development of information technology makes it easier for people to acquire knowledge. How can we turn "intelligence" into "wisdom" in future education? What are the unique experiences and feelings of Long Yongtu and Bai Yansong? Let’s look at what they said in the column "On Tao".

　　Apply what you have learned and master the method.

　　Long Yongtu: I came from an English major. At that time, I studied English at Guizhou University. I studied English for four years and never heard a real foreigner speak. So after I was assigned to Beijing, I didn’t even believe that foreigners could understand my foreign words. So when I first came to Beijing, I went to the Forbidden City. At that time, there were two old ladies and an old British lady who also visited the Forbidden City. As soon as I heard the English spoken by these two old ladies, I completely understood it. I felt that this English was not learned in vain.

　　Later, when the two old ladies visited an exhibition, one was the crown worn by the emperor and the other was the crown worn by the queen. The two old ladies began to argue about which one was worn by the emperor and which one was worn by the queen. Then I go up and speak in English. I want to show my English for the first time to see if they can understand. I told you this was the emperor’s and this was the queen’s. When the old lady heard this, because there were few English speakers in Chinese at that time, they looked at me with special respect, and what made me most happy was that I verified for the first time that my English foreigners could understand.

　　Therefore, I think this era is developing rapidly. In terms of learning knowledge, as long as your methods are correct, you can learn at the same starting line as children in big cities in Beijing and Shanghai, but the premise is that you must work hard, the premise is that you must really study, and the premise is that you must apply all conditions to learn knowledge well.

　　Benefit from a lifetime experience

　　Bai Yansong: I take 11 graduate students in journalism every year. At first, I just wanted to teach them majors, because there will be a lot of them in the school, and I will teach them more from the perspective of actual combat. But then slowly, it has become how to talk more about history on the one hand, and human nature on the other, and finally make it a more comprehensive person, so the major is not as much as before, but it may be more helpful for them to do it in the future, because everything needs support. Just like children’s coming to see the best education is delayed, I like this sentence very much. What does it mean?

　　The education they get today is not realized immediately today, but may be revealed to them several years later. For example, for these children, seeing the sea today may just be an impulse in their eyes. But many years later, compared with other students in their school who didn’t watch the sea, he might be more confident, more atmospheric, and more willing to speak, instead of hiding in the side shyly. At that time, you realized that the sea-watching a few years ago, although it was only less than a week, actually appeared in them a few years later. This is a good education.

　　The product release of Big Data (e-Box) platform in Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Zone and the presentation meeting on the policy of political and trust linkage were held. Zhang Yuhuan photo

　　Zhongxin. com, Hangzhou, March 16 (Reporter Zhang Yuhuan) On the 15th, China (Hangzhou) cross-border electronic commerce Comprehensive Experimental Zone (hereinafter referred to as Hangzhou Comprehensive Experimental Zone) held the product release of Big Data (e-Box) platform and the presentation meeting on the policy of political and trust linkage in Hangzhou. It is understood that through the online big data platform, Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Zone strives to build an index system suitable for the credit rating of cross-border e-commerce in Hangzhou, and provides differentiated services for enterprises with different credit ratings according to the index system to create a business environment of mutual trust and mutual benefit.

　　"In the past, it took at least one or two years for traditional foreign trade to obtain stable customers, which was a process of gradually accumulating trust. Today’s cross-border e-commerce, the two parties to the transaction do not meet and place orders directly, which is right for ‘ Credit ’ Put forward higher requirements. " Chen Weijing, deputy director of the Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Office, said.

　　The product release of Big Data (e-Box) platform in Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Zone and the presentation meeting on the policy of political and trust linkage were held. Zhang Yuhuan photo

　　She introduced that through the online big data platform, Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Zone has gathered government departments such as customs and taxation, gathered various e-commerce platforms and massive Internet data, built credit models according to the characteristics of different sub-industries, and built an indicator system suitable for cross-border e-commerce credit rating in Hangzhou.

　　"In the process of building the integrity of e-commerce, we are mainly divided into three links: letter acceptance, letter evaluation and letter use. In the early stage, 28 Hangzhou government departments transmitted data to the platform data warehouse, and matched the enterprises provided by government departments in the process of credit evaluation ‘ Black and white sample ’ Then, according to the five criteria of enterprise qualification, credit history and performance ability, the enterprise score is carried out. " Han Wei, head of Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Office Management Service Center, introduced.

　　According to the index system, the platform divides the cross-border e-commerce enterprises in Hangzhou into five grades: AAA/AA/A/BBB/BB, and provides differentiated services for enterprises with different credit ratings, such as opening a green channel for high-quality enterprises, extending the logistics account period, docking high-quality service providers, etc., and forming an e-commerce credit linkage ecosystem through the joint efforts of the platform layer, the government side and the market side.

　　The product release of Big Data (e-Box) platform in Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Zone and the presentation meeting on the policy of political and trust linkage were held. Zhang Yuhuan photo

　　According to Liao Wei, the head of corporate credit in Alibaba’s corporate financial services division, space and distance magnify the pain points of trust in cross-border trade, such as low transaction conversion rate and communication inquiry occupying a lot of time cost, so it is particularly important to build a cross-border e-commerce credit rating index system. "Integrity system business is becoming a business card and pass for SMEs in new commercial times."

　　At the event site, the service provider project that won the excellent cross-border ecological partner in 2018 signed a preferential agreement on political and credit linkage with Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Zone, and provided preferential rights for cross-border e-commerce enterprises in Hangzhou with reference to credit rating.

　　"Brand integrity construction is not achieved overnight." Chen Weijing said that in 2019, Hangzhou Comprehensive Test Zone will continue to cooperate with high-quality service providers to expand the global market based on credit, so as to give a "green light" to honest and trustworthy enterprises and help cross-border electronic commerce enterprises, traditional trade and manufacturing enterprises to better develop global digital trade.

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the living consumption level of Chinese people has been greatly improved, and a historic leap has been achieved from insufficient food and clothing to a well-off society in general and then to a well-off society in an all-round way. With the change of development stage, people’s yearning for a better life is stronger, and the demand for upgrading the stock of consumer goods is constantly improving. Adapting to the new stage, new changes and new requirements, and promoting a new round of trade-in of consumer goods is not only beneficial to the present, but also beneficial to the long term, which is of great significance and role in promoting high-quality economic development.

First, the significance of implementing a new round of consumer goods trade-in.

(1) It is conducive to adapting to the changes in the development stage and promoting the continuous expansion of consumption.

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has grown rapidly, durable consumer goods have been fully popularized, and the problem of "whether there is" has been basically solved. By the end of 2022, the number of cars with 1,000 people in China had reached 226, and the average number of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs per 100 households reached 133.9, 104.2, 99 and 118.9 respectively. In the context of the rapid growth and popularization of durable consumer goods, policies such as trade-in in the early stage put more emphasis on stimulating incremental consumption and stabilizing economic growth. With the change of development stage, the demand for upgrading the stock of consumer goods is constantly increasing, and China’s consumer market is generally entering an era of paying equal attention to both increment and stock. Trade-in of consumer goods is conducive to accelerating the transformation of the consumer market from "whether there is" to "whether it is good" and forming a domestic cycle with consumption as the leading force.

(2) It is conducive to consolidating the economic recovery and improving the quality and level of the national economic cycle.

Consumption is the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" of economic growth, and promoting consumption is the inherent requirement of promoting a virtuous circle of economy. At present, a large number of potential consumption in China still needs to be stimulated, and a virtuous circle of mutual promotion between consumption and investment is accelerating, and the chain of "consumption-employment-income" needs to be further unblocked. Activating the consumer market by exchanging the old for the new, releasing potential consumption and cultivating new consumption will help to provide stronger market demand support for enterprise management, thus stabilizing enterprise production and investment expectations, improving market participants’ confidence, promoting the smooth realization of production cycle and promoting China’s sustained economic recovery.

(3) It is conducive to promoting the change of development momentum and cultivating new quality productivity.

China’s consumer market continues to emerge a series of new consumption different from the past, which has become a new kinetic energy and new growth point to promote high-quality development. By expanding the renewal of existing consumer goods, the scale effect of innovation and development of new consumption and new formats will be formed, which in turn will have a strong innovation leading and pulling effect on upstream manufacturing and guide the upgrading of upstream manufacturing industrial structure to adapt to the changes in demand structure. The demand potential released by trade-in will help guide and support enterprises to increase scientific and technological innovation and new product research and development, promote technological upgrading and progress in related industries, foster the formation of new quality productivity, and achieve more quality and efficient growth. Trade-in of old products will push the economy to a higher level of dynamic balance in which demand pulls supply and supply creates demand, which is conducive to the dual promotion of domestic and global product competitiveness in the new era.

(4) It is conducive to meeting people’s needs for a better life and enhancing people’s well-being.

Owning and enjoying higher quality durable consumer goods is an important embodiment of people’s yearning for a better life. Trade-in is not a simple replacement of similar products, but a higher-end, smarter, more environmentally friendly and more personalized demand trend. With the increase of the service life of consumer goods in stock, the performance of a large number of cars and household appliances is getting worse, the emissions are getting higher, and even there are security risks. By exchanging old products for new ones to support the transformation and upgrading of residents’ consumption, high-quality products that are energy-saving, environmentally friendly and intelligent will enter residents’ lives, which will help improve people’s quality of life and enhance their sense of acquisition, happiness and security.

Second, the focus and focus of effectively starting and continuously promoting the trade-in of consumer goods

First, vigorously stimulate and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of all parties. Adhere to the linkage between the central and local governments, coordinate and support all links in the whole chain, and realize the coordinated linkage and comprehensive policy of production, supply and marketing, upstream and downstream, government, enterprises and people, online and offline, benefiting more consumers. Strengthen the central government’s policy support, arrange special funds from the central government, improve tax support policies and optimize financial support, and give better play to the guiding role of local governments and business entities. Optimize the design of policy mechanism, fully stimulate the enthusiasm of production enterprises, platform enterprises, recycling enterprises, dismantling enterprises and consumers, and implement the original intention of good policies.

The second is systematic planning to get through the key blocking points of the supply and demand cycle. In the past, fiscal policy was more biased towards infrastructure investment and upstream manufacturing. From the current point of view, it is necessary to pay more attention to the leading and leading role of consumers. In policy implementation, it is necessary to respect consumers’ choices, enhance consumers’ ability to pay, give play to consumers’ subjective initiative, and focus more on how to lead and drive consumers to upgrade, indirectly forming a virtuous circle of mutual promotion between supply and demand. Promote the circulation of commodities through the trade-in action, enhance the transaction value of commodities in all links, and create a reasonable profit space for market players. Solve the outstanding shortcomings in the whole cycle of production, circulation, consumption and recycling of products, and fundamentally form a systematic policy effect.

The third is to promote flexibly and continuously release the consumption potential. Focus on organizing and carrying out trade-in activities by stages and product categories, so as to create a consumer market atmosphere with continuous vitality in generate and avoid the fatigue of consumers caused by concentrated activities. Guided by convenience and material benefits, we will comprehensively use various policy tools such as consumer subsidies, consumer coupons, and interest subsidies for consumer loans, actively give play to the advantages of Internet platforms, and simplify the policy application process, especially taking care of the needs of the elderly and rural residents. Strengthen the safety publicity of durable consumer goods, actively organize theme activities, and gradually improve consumers’ awareness of safety precautions in the use of old household appliances. Through the way of regional pilot, we will innovate, promote, evaluate and improve, and properly solve the new problems in the implementation of this round of trade-in policy.

Fourth, give consideration to both length and weakness, and strengthen the construction of systems and standards. Take a new round of trade-in as an opportunity to promote the improvement of the basic system of consumer market governance, accelerate the construction of a high-standard market system, and create a good institutional environment for consumer innovation. Gradually strengthen the construction of recycling industry system, guide recycling enterprises and individual operators to gradually integrate into unified management, and continuously improve the quality of circulation services. Adhere to the guidance of standards and orderly promotion, and further improve the management system and industry standards of product life cycle. Support industry associations, individual enterprises, experts and scholars to actively participate in the formulation of standards, strengthen the convergence of international and domestic standards in key areas, and let more high-quality durable consumer goods enter residents’ lives.

Fifth, strengthen support and constantly improve the consumption supporting system. Overall planning and construction of a number of urban comprehensive logistics centers, professional distribution centers and e-commerce logistics nodes, and improvement of urban logistics distribution facilities such as docking, loading and unloading. Improve the logistics infrastructure network and sales service system in rural areas, promote the construction of regional commercial logistics distribution centers and terminal distribution outlets, and promote the innovation of consumption formats. We will improve the resource recycling system for scrapped cars and used household appliances and furniture, improve the network layout of household appliances and furniture recycling, promote the construction of recycling outlets and centralized storage and transportation points as a whole, and encourage the establishment of recycling bins in qualified communities to facilitate residents to handle small household appliances.

(the State CouncilWang Qing, deputy director and researcher of Market Economy Research Institute of Development Research Center; Wang Nian, deputy director and associate researcher of the Research Office of Market Economy Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center)

　　On January 15th, Guangzhou Beijing Road Pedestrian Street was crowded with tourists. Photo by Zhong Yong (People’s Vision)

　　Chaoyang, Beijing — —

　　Shangchao sales and stocking are busy.

　　On January 14, I walked into the sweet water garden store of Jingkelong Supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing, and the strong flavor of the year came on me. On the glass curtain wall, huge window stickers focus on the theme of the Year of the Rabbit, and red lanterns are hung high on both sides of the door. On the shelves in the supermarket, "candied melon sticks", peanuts and melon seeds are piled up into hills, and Daoxiang Village dim sum box, old Beijing roast duck gift box and New Year’s Eve gift box are renewed in turn.

　　Many kinds of fish are very popular in the fresh aquatic products area. "From the opening of the door in the morning to the present, the hairtail on the shelf is sold short, and it can sell about 400 kilograms every day." Chen Song, the clerk in charge of selling hairtail, said while busy.

　　Mr. Liu, a citizen who came to buy the new year’s goods, carefully selected the dried fruits, and soon the harvest was full: "This Spring Festival, the children will come home, so they came to buy all kinds of dried fruits and leisure snacks early. The supermarket has a complete range of goods and everything they want to buy."

　　"This is only the beginning of the sales of new year’s goods, and it will usher in a peak period in the next few days." Guo Dongnian, manager of Jingkelong Sweet Water Garden Store, said, "In the past, everyone’s shopping carts were piled with rice flour, grain and oil, as well as easy-to-store dishes such as Chinese cabbage, potatoes and onions; Now, most of them are leafy vegetables, fresh fish, fresh shrimp and fresh fruit, many of which are high-net-worth goods. "

　　In response to customers’ diversified and quality needs, supermarkets have also opened pre-sale channels while actively stocking up. Customers can order light snow strawberries, Maoshanwang durian, cherries, red pine mushrooms and other commodities, and receive them at home on time, which is both fresh and convenient.

　　There should be a new atmosphere in the new year. Looking forward to the new year, Guo Dongnian told reporters: "In 2023, the store will usher in an overall transformation and upgrading, from the ground and ceiling to the shelves and promotional activities. We are full of confidence in welcoming the Spring Festival. "

　　Chengdu, Sichuan — —

　　Characteristic business circle is full of vitality

　　At noon on January 17, the reporter came to a commercial complex in Jiaozi Financial Business Circle, Chengdu High-tech Zone, Sichuan Province, and saw an endless stream of citizens and tourists, talking and laughing in and out of the mall, and a scene of jubilation.

　　"I will go back to my hometown in Shaanxi tomorrow, and I will come shopping as soon as the mall opens today." Mr. Wu, who is on a business trip to Chengdu, holds the special ingredients such as the bottom of a wok and beef in one hand and a panda doll souvenir in the other. He smiled and told the reporter, "If you eat, you can send your relatives, and the panda doll will be given to your daughter."

　　Walking into the shopping mall, the annual flavor is full, lanterns, zodiac rabbits and other Chinese New Year elements can be seen everywhere, and many counters put up posters with full discounts and points redemption in eye-catching positions. "In the past few days, we have specially extended the business hours and increased the security to ensure that citizens and tourists have a good time in shopping malls and buy with confidence." The person in charge of the mall told the reporter.

　　The Spring Festival is approaching, and the warming trend of Chengdu consumer market is obviously enhanced. As a large-scale commercial complex in Jiaozi Financial Business Circle, Chengdu Youfang Shopping Center will continue to launch exhibitions such as trend art exhibitions, as well as promotional activities such as redemption of points and over-value discounts during the Spring Festival holiday, creating a rich consumption scene that integrates eating, drinking and shopping, so that citizens and tourists can experience the traditional taste of the year and multiple pleasures. The Mofang Shopping Center adjacent to Youfang Shopping Center will also launch special packages during the Spring Festival holiday to open a new experience of food fashion consumption.

　　The data shows that in the fourth quarter of last year, the daily average number of visitors to Chengdu Jiaozi Financial Business Circle reached 148,000, an increase of 47.7% compared with the third quarter, and it has maintained a steady upward trend. During the New Year’s Day holiday this year, the retail and catering enterprises under key monitoring in Sichuan Province achieved a cumulative sales of 2.26 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year. In order to meet the diversified consumption needs of citizens to a greater extent, help market players gather popularity and increase confidence, Chengdu High-tech Zone also launched the first Jiaozi International Consumer Festival and other theme activities to bring more fresh and diverse high-quality consumption experiences to citizens and continuously stimulate consumption potential.

　　Guangzhou, Guangdong — —

　　Restaurant reservations are booming.

　　On January 15th, Huifu Food Flower Street in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, was bustling and bustling in the twilight. Citizens enjoy flowers for dinner, and their faces are filled with the happiness of the Spring Festival.

　　"I specially brought my family here today, ate an authentic Cantonese food, and bought some flowers to decorate the house." Mr. Gao, a family of six, booked a table in advance before the rush hour and sat in the almost full Guangzhou restaurant.

　　"The recent passenger flow has increased by nearly 20% compared with the same period of last year." The person in charge of Yuehua Store of Guangzhou Restaurant said that the demand for dining was very strong during this period. The private rooms and the first round hall of the store during the Spring Festival holiday were basically fully booked, and more than half of the second round had been booked.

　　Huifu Food Flower Street is one of the first batch of Cantonese food streets in Guangdong Province, and it is also an important part of Guangzhou Beijing Road National Demonstration Pedestrian Street, with a total length of nearly 400 meters and more than 120 restaurants.

　　It is understood that the recent turnover rate of Guangzhou Restaurant, Big Pigeon Rice and other Cantonese food brand stores in Huifu Food Flower Street has exceeded 6%, and the booking rate of small and medium-sized private rooms such as Lucky House and Yuepin House is close to full, and there are long queues at the gates of Zhuangchen Food Store, Big Head Shrimp and Wentong Ice Room. During the Spring Festival holiday this year, many food and beverage outlets in Guangzhou will carry out profit promotion activities, offer multiple discounts for new year products such as potted vegetables and rice cakes, and develop a number of special dishes for the Spring Festival.

　　"The business of catering stores is booming and the consumption momentum is improving. On January 15, the total passenger flow on Beijing Road will exceed 600,000, an increase of 7% over the same period of last year. " The person in charge of the Management Committee of Beijing Road Cultural Core Area in Guangzhou said that since the New Year’s Eve, Beijing Road Pedestrian Street has held the "Welcome New Year to Buy New Year’s Goods" to promote consumption, which will continue to attract passengers and stimulate consumption.

　　"Money is spent today, and tomorrow’s things will be discussed tomorrow?" For this statement, most of Chinese (79.03%) disapproved, but compared with two years ago, the preference for delayed consumption declined slightly. A few days ago, the "Summary Report on Consumer Financial Literacy Survey in 2019" released by the central bank aroused social concern. There is also another set of data that attracts people’s attention: last year, the per capita holding of credit cards and debit-credit cards in China increased by nearly 20%; In the first quarter of this year, the total outstanding credit of credit cards overdue for half a year reached 79.743 billion yuan, nearly 10 times that of nine years ago.

　　Some people think that the decline in delayed consumption preference and the sharp increase in outstanding credit of credit cards mean that Chinese doesn’t like saving money and loves spending money.

　　Experts said that this summary should not be simply made. Compared with other countries, China’s savings rate is still in the forefront. The change of people’s attitude towards saving shows that China’s domestic demand-oriented economic system is gradually being established. However, some people, especially young people, should realize the transformation from "card slave" to "card owner", avoid excessive consumption, and establish correct values and consumption concepts.

　　With sufficient policy support and a good mentality, young people naturally dare to "buy in buy buy"

　　"I don’t save money when I have no income, and I don’t deliberately save money after I have income." Lou Yun, 24, has been working for two years, and every month she puts her salary in Alipay. After paying back the money that should have been paid last month, she will buy regular financial management or fund fixed investment for the rest of the money. In her opinion, if you want to increase your money, you can only earn more, not save more.

　　Nowadays, the number of people who hold similar ideas with Lou Yun is increasing. The "Summary Report on Consumer Financial Literacy Survey in 2019" released by the People’s Bank of China recently shows that when asked about their attitudes towards consumption and savings, although most people (79.03%) hold the view of "not agreeing" or "not agreeing at all" to "spend money today, and talk about things tomorrow", compared with 2017, consumers’ preference for delayed consumption has declined slightly.

　　Delaying consumption means storing some of your belongings and then arranging for consumption at multiple points in the future. Delaying the decline of consumption preference means that some people no longer save money, but spend it immediately. Relevant statistics also show that the savings rate of China residents reached 37.3% at its peak (in 2008), and has declined in recent years.

　　What do you think of this phenomenon? Yang Jun, a professor in the Department of Trade at the School of International Business and Economics of the University of International Business and Economics, said that generally speaking, there are two main reasons for delaying consumption: one is to cope with future expenditures and various uncertainties, and the other is to obtain higher financial benefits. At present, the new generation of consumers in China has gradually become the main body of the labor market, with more emphasis on the individual’s current quality of life. At the same time, with the improvement of living standards and the improvement of social security system, the dividend of tax reduction and fee reduction policy is continuously released, the uncertainty of employment, education and health care in the future is reduced, and people’s overall spending power is improved. In addition, the rapid development of modern finance makes it easier for individuals and families to obtain short-term and medium-and long-term funds to cope with all kinds of urgent expenses, and the cost has dropped significantly.

　　To put it simply, today’s consumers, especially the younger generation, are in a good mood and confident, and naturally dare to "buy in buy buy". Data show that in the first half of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China reached 19.5 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year. Among them, young people are becoming the main force of consumption. Ant Financial and Fidelity International released the "2018 China Pension Prospect Survey Report", showing that 18— The average monthly savings of 34-year-old young people is 1339 yuan.

　　Liu Ye, who is studying in a university in Beijing, has been saving money since primary school and likes to spend money. She said that on the one hand, saving money is for emergencies, on the other hand, it is to satisfy some small wishes, such as buying something that you are usually reluctant to buy to reward yourself. However, when buying some high-priced products, even if she has the ability to pay directly, she will choose to use Internet consumer credit products for installment payment, which is becoming fashionable among young people. "Consumption is impulsive, so control yourself." Liu Ye has set a consumption red line for this purpose — — It can’t exceed 4,000 yuan per month, because "owing too much money will lead to pressure".

　　“‘ After 95 ’ And ‘ 00 ’ Growing up in the era of affluence and mobile Internet, it is logical to delay the decline of consumption preference when they gradually become the main consumer. " Wang Jun, a member of the Academic Committee of China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that this phenomenon will increase further in the future as more children grow up.

　　It should be pointed out that the rising house prices for many years, the improvement of residents’ living conditions, and the increase in rigid expenditures such as pension and medical care are also important reasons for delaying the decline in consumption preferences and reducing the household savings rate in recent years. Wang Jun believes that delaying the decline of consumption preference and the decrease of savings rate are two sides of the same coin, because the pursuit of a better life will inevitably lead to the promotion of immediate consumption power and the decrease of savings rate.

　　At the same time, he pointed out that compared with developed countries and developing countries, China’s household savings rate has always been in the forefront of the world, and there has been no cliff-like decline. Of course, due to the gap between China and developed countries in terms of the soundness of social security system, the perfection of financial market and the income level of residents, especially the change of residents’ consumption habits will take a long time, so it is necessary to prepare for risk prevention and relevant policy adjustment.

　　Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the People’s Bank of China, believes that the decline in the savings rate has certain benefits, indicating that domestic demand has increased, but we also need to pay attention to the change of the savings rate between generations. Under the background of the development of financial technology, the rapid development of consumer credit will induce the younger generation to spend in advance and borrow money. "This is not only an economic and financial phenomenon, but also a cultural and demographic phenomenon, which may have an important impact."

　　Will "spend tomorrow’s money and buy today’s things" become a consumption trap?

　　Among many forms of consumption, it is worthy of attention to swipe credit cards or use online consumer credit products such as Alipay "Flower Blossom" for early consumption and borrowing consumption. This consumption form of "spending tomorrow’s money and buying today’s things" is very common among some young people.

　　Ren Huan, who is studying for a master’s degree in a university in Beijing, recently made up his mind to shut down an Internet consumer credit product. It turned out that under the induction of this product, he spent up to 45 thousand yuan a month. He said: "It always gives me a credit limit, and when I pay, I use this product by default, which makes me spend money like water."

　　There are more and more credit cards and internet consumer credit products, which leads to a substantial increase in the amount of outstanding credit and pushes up financial risks. According to the "General Situation of Payment System Operation in the First Quarter of 2019" issued by the central bank, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the total outstanding credit of credit cards overdue for half a year was 79.743 billion yuan. In 2010, nine years ago, this figure was only 8.804 billion yuan. According to statistics, among the nearly 170 million "post-90s", more than 45 million people have opened "flower beds". The phenomenon of credit card "card slave" and "flower slave" began to appear.

　　Wang Jun believes that the rapid growth of credit card issuance by commercial banks and the rapid development of financial technology have also led to a sharp rise in multi-head co-debt and related risks of credit consumer loans such as credit cards, Internet-based credit products, consumer finance loans and cash loans, resulting in an increase in the overdue amount of credit cards. Especially under the macro background of increasing economic downward pressure in recent years, the personal financial situation of some credit card holders has changed greatly, while some commercial banks have excessively pursued commercial interests and failed to grasp these changes in time, resulting in more prominent related problems and risks.

　　The improper marketing methods of some businesses are also adding fuel to the fire. Some advertisements link consumption with status, class, taste, IQ, love, affection and so on, and induce people to over-consume.

　　Generally speaking, reasonable consumption in advance is conducive to changing the traditional phenomenon that the elders accumulate capital and wealth, and the descendants get something for nothing, and it can also effectively expand market demand and promote economic growth. However, unreasonable consumption in advance may go to the opposite side, which will increase economic pressure for individuals and affect their mental health and life stability; For the country and society, it will induce a destructive hedonism and unrealistic waste culture, cause a social "credit crisis" and increase the possibility of economic crisis. Great Depression in the 1930s, 2007— The "subprime mortgage crisis" in 2008 is a lesson from the past.

　　So, will this advanced consumption pattern become a "consumption trap" in China? Many experts and interviewees believe that the key to preventing risks lies in cultivating people to develop good and healthy consumption habits.

　　"In the next 10 years, the total amount of outstanding credit of Chinese residents will increase, but it will remain within a reasonable range." Yang Jun believes that this is because the overall knowledge level of young people is improving and their ability to obtain higher income is increasing; At the same time, the means of risk control in the financial sector will be more advanced.

　　In Ren Huan’s view, marriage will become the threshold for him to save money. He said that saving money after marriage is not simply for enjoying consumption, but for family illness, pension and other expenses. "This reflects the continuation of Chinese’s traditional home-based culture, and there is a kind of cultural resilience behind it."

　　Balance the relationship between savings and consumption from the perspective of life cycle

　　In order to accelerate the transformation of consumption to green, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ten departments issued the Guiding Opinions on Promoting Green Consumption three years ago. The opinion puts forward that we should resolutely resist unhealthy trends such as extravagance and pleasure-seeking, vigorously get rid of bad habits such as ostentation and extravagance, resist excessive consumption, change the wrong concept of "paying for yourself and being rich and frugal", and form a social atmosphere of "saving glory and wasting shame". The opinions also put forward specific measures from the aspects of laws and regulations, standard system, identification certification system, economic policy and financial support.

　　Nowadays, more young people are conscious of balancing savings and consumption. "I will decide to spend according to a stable income." For the future consumption view, Liu Ye answered with certainty. She said that she would definitely save money after work, and she felt insecure if she didn’t save money, because Chinese often said, "When money is used, she hates less".

　　However, with the increasing availability of financial services, it is urgent to improve people’s financial literacy. The Summary Report on the Survey of Consumers’ Financial Literacy in 2019 issued by the Central Bank suggests that we should pay attention to the financial literacy of low-income, low-educated, non-employed, old and young groups, carry out appropriate financial education activities in combination with group characteristics, focus on improving consumers’ financial knowledge and skills, and improve consumers’ financial behavior. At the same time, actively respond to the challenges brought by digital technology. For some consumers, digital technology has a lagging effect in promoting financial literacy, so more financial education tools should be developed to adapt to the digital age and demographic changes.

　　"The cultivation of good financial literacy and consumption concept needs to start with school education and start with dolls. This should be the basic quality that every citizen should have." Wang Jun believes that residents should be guided to establish a sustainable consumption concept, live within their means, consume moderately, and arrange and balance the relationship between savings and consumption from the perspective of the whole life cycle.

　　Yang Jun believes that for individuals, it is still necessary to advocate the concept of thrift and reasonable arrangement of various consumption expenditures. For large loans, it is necessary to balance the relationship between future income and current loans, and try to keep the current loan amount within the current discounted value of future reasonable income expectations. The government should promote the integration of financial knowledge into the national education system and improve the financial investment literacy of the people; At the same time, improve the financial supervision system, promote the efficiency of the financial sector, and control social and financial risks.

　　(At the request of the interviewee, fei chang, Zaler Xu, Lou Yun, Liu Ye and Ren Huan mentioned in this article are all pseudonyms. )

　　Consumer said

　　"If you have income, you will definitely save money."

　　Zhang Fei college student female is 23 years old.

　　I can’t save money at present because there is no extra income; However, it will not be consumed in advance. Even if you use Alipay’s "flower garden" loan or make installment payment, you must ensure that you can pay it back now.

　　I will definitely save money when I have income in the future. I haven’t thought about how much to save, but I certainly won’t spend money lavishly. For example, if I earn 20,000 yuan a month, I must save at least 10,000 yuan, regardless of the necessary expenses.

　　What do you save money for? Of course, it is to buy a house, a car, or an emergency. I think saving money is a great source of security, which means stronger risk coping ability and more future choices. Anyway, I dare not be a "moonlight family".

　　"Consumption is better than saving money"

　　Xu Lang graduated for one year, unemployed male, 26 years old.

　　I don’t make money now, and I can’t save money. After making money, you shouldn’t save money at first, so it’s estimated that it’s not enough to spend, but if there is any surplus after spending, won’t the money be saved automatically?

　　I think consumption is still very important. It is better to spend for your own interests than to save money. What do you save money for? I haven’t thought about it, so I’ll save it first.

　　I usually use Alipay "Flower Garden", and I can only use it to advance when I have no money. Now my parents help me repay the loan, so I haven’t thought about the credit limit and repayment ability.

　　(Peng Xunwen, Li Hejun)

　　On December 16th, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China issued a public consultation announcement on the Notice on Further Promoting the Standardized and Healthy Development of Credit Card Business (Draft for Comment). The opinion draft pointed out that banking financial institutions should take effective measures to monitor and control the actual use of credit card funds in a timely and accurate manner. Credit card funds shall not be used for repayment of loans, investment and other fields, and it is strictly forbidden to flow into areas restricted or prohibited by policies. The number of long-term sleep credit cards that have not been actively traded by customers for more than 18 consecutive months and the current overdraft balance and overpayment are zero shall not exceed 20% of the total number of cards issued by the institution at any time, except for credit cards with additional policy functions issued by banking financial institutions as required by policies and regulations. Banking financial institutions exceeding this ratio may not issue new cards.

　　Attached to the original:

　　Notice on Further Promoting the Standardized and Healthy Development of Credit Card Business (Draft for Comment)

　　This circular is formulated to standardize the credit card business, implement the management responsibilities of banking financial institutions and their cooperative institutions, improve the quality and efficiency of credit card services, protect the legitimate rights and interests of financial consumers, adhere to the people-centered development idea, and promote the credit card industry to develop with high quality to better support scientific and rational consumption.

　　First, strengthen the management of credit card business

　　(1) [Strategic Management] A banking financial institution shall formulate a prudent and steady credit card development strategy, which shall be reviewed and approved by the board of directors or senior management of the institution, and shall be continuously and effectively implemented and regularly evaluated and improved. Banking financial institutions shall reasonably formulate the annual management objectives and plans of credit cards in strict accordance with the development strategy.

　　(II) [Performance Appraisal] Banking financial institutions shall establish a scientific and reasonable credit card business performance appraisal index system and salary payment mechanism. The weight of compliance management indicators and risk management indicators should be significantly higher than other indicators. Banking financial institutions shall regularly assess and determine the positions and personnel scope that have an important impact on the credit card business risks, and implement strict management of deferred payment, delayed recourse and deduction of performance pay.

　　(III) [Asset Quality Management] Banking financial institutions shall strictly implement the credit card asset quality classification standards and identification procedures, and comprehensively, accurately and timely reflect the asset risk status. Strengthen the analysis of asset quality migration trend, set risk early warning indicators, continuously and effectively identify, measure, monitor, warn, prevent and dispose of risks, accurately grasp the scale and structure of non-performing assets, and write them off in time according to procedures.

　　(IV) [Behavior Management] Banking financial institutions shall strictly implement the employee behavior management of credit card business, carry out continuous supervision and regular investigation, implement the whole process supervision of the business behaviors of important positions and key personnel, and establish and improve the accountability and recording mechanism for violations.

　　(V) [Staff Training] Banking financial institutions shall strengthen compliance training and consumer rights protection training for their employees engaged in credit card business, and the training time for each person shall not be less than 30 hours per year.

　　Second, strictly regulate the marketing behavior of issuing cards.

　　(VI) [Card Issuance Management] Banking financial institutions shall not directly or indirectly take the number of cards issued, the number of customers, market share or market ranking as single or main assessment indicators.

　　Banking financial institutions should continue to take effective measures to prevent risks such as fraudulent card handling and excessive card handling. Set the maximum number of cards issued for a single customer. Strengthen the dynamic monitoring and management of sleep credit cards and strictly control the proportion. The number of long-term sleep credit cards that have not been actively traded by customers for more than 18 consecutive months and the current overdraft balance and overpayment are zero shall not exceed 20% of the total number of cards issued by the institution at any time, except for credit cards with additional policy functions issued by banking financial institutions as required by policies and regulations. Banking financial institutions exceeding this ratio may not issue new cards. The Bank of China Insurance Regulatory Commission (hereinafter referred to as China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission) can dynamically reduce the proportion limit standard of long-term sleep credit cards according to regulatory needs.

　　Banking financial institutions should respect the true wishes of customers when binding payment accounts and other accounts for credit cards, and provide unbinding services with the same convenience. If a customer applies for card cancellation, it shall complete the processing in time after confirming that there is no outstanding payment.

　　(VII) [Information Disclosure] Banking financial institutions should effectively strengthen marketing publicity and management when conducting credit card business. When concluding a credit card contract with a customer, we should strictly fulfill the obligation to prompt or explain the terms of interest, compound interest, fees, liquidated damages, and risk disclosure, show the annualized interest rate level to the customer in an obvious way, ensure that the customer pays attention to and understands the terms, and actively inform the customer of the consultation and complaint acceptance channels. When opening the online payment function of credit card for customers, we should fully fulfill the obligation of informing in advance, reach an agreement with customers on the terms of online payment, and obtain the customer’s confirmation and consent on the opening.

　　(VIII) [Sales Backtracking] Banking financial institutions shall actively take audio and video recording and other measures to completely and objectively record and save important sales link information such as credit card issuance, risk disclosure and information disclosure, so as to ensure that the recorded information is comprehensive, accurate, tamper-proof and traceable, and continuously meet the requirements of supervision and inspection by financial regulatory authorities and investigation and evidence collection by judicial organs in China. The recorded information should at least include: the valid identification materials of the credit card applicant, the financial status related to the credit card application, credit records, publicity and sales texts, signed credit card articles of association and contract (agreement), important tips and confirmation information, etc. The recorded information should be kept for at least 2 years after the end of the business duration with customers.

　　(IX) [Management of Marketing Personnel] No person may engage in the credit card issuance marketing activities of a banking financial institution without internal unified qualification certification. Banking financial institutions shall provide information inquiry methods for credit card marketers at their business outlets and electronic channels. Credit card marketers should present their work certificates containing the identity of the card issuer and personal work information to customers in advance, and inform customers of the information inquiry methods of credit card marketers.

　　(X) [Prohibited Behavior] Banking financial institutions shall implement strict management of credit card marketing behavior. Do not promise to issue cards or promise to give high credit; No fraud or false propaganda; Credit cards shall not be marketed by default check or forced bundling.

　　Third, strict credit management and risk control

　　(eleven) [credit audit] banking financial institutions should strengthen the credit audit of credit card customers, understand and analyze the credit status of customers through legal channels such as the basic database of financial credit information, implement necessary multi-dimensional cross-verification, independently audit and judge the identity of customers and identify the authenticity, integrity and timeliness of application materials. Customers who have multiple debt records in different institutions after investigation should be strictly examined to strictly guard against the risk of multi-head lending.

　　(XII) [Credit Management] A banking financial institution shall reasonably set the upper limit of the total credit line of a single customer according to the credit status, income status and financial status of the customer, and include the customer in all credit lines of the institution for unified management. Within the total credit line of credit card, the credit line of cash advance business shall not exceed the credit line of non-cash advance business.

　　Banking financial institutions shall conduct full due diligence on a single customer and conduct consolidated management on all credit card credit lines of the customer in other institutions. In the process of credit approval and credit line increase (including temporary credit line increase), the accumulated credit lines obtained from other institutions should be deducted from the total credit line of the customer’s own credit card, and the situation of new card issuing customers applying for credit cards from other institutions at the same time should be monitored and the corresponding credit line reduction should be implemented.

　　(XIII) Banking financial institutions shall implement strict and prudent dynamic management of credit line of credit card, and re-evaluate, calculate and determine the credit line of credit card customers at least once a year. For customers whose risk situation has obviously deteriorated, measures such as reducing the credit line should be taken in time. The customer who raises the credit line shall be re-approved for credit, and the credit line shall not be raised without the consent of the customer. Banking financial institutions shall strictly set the approval authority for raising the credit line, and reasonably set the range, frequency, time interval and validity period of the temporary increase of the credit line.

　　(XIV) [Risk Model] Banking financial institutions shall establish and improve the whole process management mechanism of credit card risk model development, testing, evaluation, application, monitoring, correction, optimization and withdrawal, ensure that the risk model development and evaluation links are independent of each other, and re-evaluate the risk model at least once a year and update and optimize it in time. When using the risk model provided by the cooperative organization, the principles of interpretability, verifiability, transparency and fairness shall be followed, and the responsibility of risk model management shall not be outsourced. The board of directors and senior management of banking financial institutions should understand the role and limitations of credit card-related risk models.

　　Fourth, strictly control the flow of funds

　　(XV) Banking financial institutions shall take effective measures to timely and accurately monitor and control the actual use of credit card funds. Credit card funds shall not be used for repayment of loans, investment and other fields, and it is strictly forbidden to flow into areas restricted or prohibited by policies.

　　(XVI) Banking financial institutions shall strengthen the monitoring and analysis of abnormal card use behaviors such as cashing and swiping, continuously optimize transaction monitoring rules, enhance early warning capabilities, and continuously and effectively prevent and control all kinds of fraud risks. Record and save credit card transactions and other information completely according to law, and continuously meet the requirements of supervision and inspection by financial regulatory authorities and investigation and evidence collection by judicial organs in China. If the transaction information that the acquiring institution should send is not received, it shall promptly inform the bank card clearing institution, the online payment clearing platform of non-bank payment institutions and other relevant institutions. For customers who confirm the existence of cash withdrawal, banking financial institutions should immediately take effective restrictive measures to control the risk of credit card funds.

　　Five, comprehensively strengthen the standardized management of credit card installment business.

　　(XVII) Banking financial institutions shall strictly regulate the management of credit card installment business. To handle installment business for customers, we should set up independent application, approval and other links in advance, fully disclose the nature of installment business, handling procedures, potential risks and liability for breach of contract in a concise and easy-to-understand way, and confirm the knowledge by customers in a legally effective way. A separate contract (agreement) shall be signed with the customer for each installment business, and it shall not be confused with or bundled with other credit card business contracts (agreements). If the credit card installment funds need to be transferred to the customer’s own account, it shall be transferred to his own bank settlement account except the credit card, and the amount and term shall be managed according to the cash advance business.

　　(XVIII) [Prohibitive Provisions] Banking financial institutions shall not re-stage the fund balance that has been staged, except for the personalized installment repayment agreement stipulated in the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Credit Card Business of Commercial Banks. No minimum repayment service shall be provided for installment business. Do not only provide or check the option of charging full installment interest at one time by default.

　　(XIX) [Amount and Term] Banking financial institutions shall carefully set the amount and term of credit card overdraft by installment, and specify the minimum starting amount and the maximum amount of installment business. The term of installment business shall not exceed 5 years. If the customer really needs to apply for installment repayment for the cash advance business, the amount shall not exceed RMB 50,000 or the equivalent in a freely convertible currency, and the term shall not exceed 2 years.

　　(20) [Disclosure Form of Interest and Fee] A banking financial institution shall clearly display all interest and fee items, annualized interest rate levels and interest and fee calculation methods that may be generated by installment business on the first page of the installment business contract (agreement). When showing customers the use cost of funds collected by installment business, interest shall be used uniformly, and handling fees shall not be used, unless otherwise stipulated by laws and regulations.

　　(21) If the customer settles the credit card installment business in advance, the banking financial institution shall charge interest according to the actual amount of funds occupied and the term.

　　Sixth, strict management of cooperative institutions

　　(22) [Management of Cooperative Institutions] When conducting credit card business cooperation, banking financial institutions should earnestly implement the main responsibility of business compliance review and strengthen cooperation with cooperative institutions in employee compliance and consumer protection training. The credit card business management department of the head office or the headquarters of the credit card franchise institution shall formulate clear entry and exit standards and management approval procedures for the cooperative institutions, and implement list management. A written cooperation contract shall be signed with the cooperative institution to clearly stipulate the rights and responsibilities of both parties. If it is found that the cooperative institution provides unfair and unreasonable cooperation conditions or services, it shall refuse to cooperate or terminate the cooperation according to the contract. The cooperative institutions mentioned in this Notice include, but are not limited to, various institutions that cooperate in credit card advertising promotion, payment and settlement, information technology, value-added services and collection.

　　(23) [Cooperative Management] Banking financial institutions shall accept business links such as credit card application, customer information collection, identity verification, card issuance review, contract (agreement) signing, credit card transaction, bill information inquiry, repayment, etc. through self-operated network platforms, pages or other electronic channels managed and controlled by cooperative institutions, so as to ensure clear and accurate creditor-debtor relationship. For consumers who transfer to the self-operated network platform of their own institutions through the channels of other cooperative institutions, the cooperative institutions shall be required to make special tips on the difference between the ownership subjects of the channels and places.

　　(24) [Concentration Management] The total number of credit cards issued by a banking financial institution through a single cooperative institution or a number of cooperative institutions with related relationships shall not exceed 25% of the total number of credit cards issued by the institution, and the total credit balance shall not exceed 15% of the total credit balance of the institution.

　　(25) [Co-branded card management — Main responsibility] Banking financial institutions shall assume the main responsibility for the operation and management of their co-branded cards, ensure that both parties to the co-branded cards present their own brands equally in all credit card-related business links, and shall not directly or in disguised form exercise banking duties on behalf of the co-branded units or substitute the brand of the co-branded units for the bank brand. We should continue to strengthen the analysis and monitoring of the business risk, reputation risk and other adverse effects of the joint venture, and strictly prevent the risk from being transmitted to this institution. Except for obtaining separate authorization from customers through the self-operated channels of the institution, information unrelated to its rights and services shall not be returned to the joint venture. It is not allowed to carry out business beyond the business area restrictions by issuing joint-name cards or through the channels of joint-name units. Strengthen cooperation with bank card clearing institutions, and establish and improve the business rules for issuing co-branded cards.

　　(XXVI) [Co-branded card management — Joint unit] Banking financial institutions shall carefully and fully evaluate the matching degree between joint units and credit card product positioning. A joint entity shall be a non-financial institution that provides value-added services to credit card customers in its main business field. Banking financial institutions shall not cooperate with financial institutions, financial holding companies and their subordinate financial institutions, non-bank payment institutions and local financial organizations to issue co-branded cards, except as otherwise provided by China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.

　　(XXVII) [Co-branded card management — Service restrictions] The business scope of joint-name card cooperation of banking financial institutions shall be limited to the advertising promotion of joint-name units and the rights and interests services related to their main business. Where a joint venture provides data analysis, technical support, collection and other services, it shall sign a special contract separately, and stipulate the rights and responsibilities of both parties according to the principle of matching income and risk, and different cooperation content categories shall not be confused and cross-bound.

　　(XXVIII) [Co-branded card management — Service charge] If a joint unit participates in the credit card revenue or profit sharing directly or in disguised form in the joint card business cooperation, or improperly links the charging standard with the credit card overdraft amount and other indicators, the banking financial institution shall stop the joint card cooperation with it.

　　(29) [Collection Management] Banking financial institutions shall implement the main responsibility of collection management, strictly formulate and implement management systems such as audit inspection and complaint handling of collection business, standardize collection behavior, and shall not provide or disclose customer arrears information in violation of laws and regulations, and shall not collect debts from third parties unrelated to debts. Continuously strengthen the collection capacity building of this institution and reduce the dependence on outsourcing collection.

　　Vii. strengthening the protection of consumers’ legitimate rights and interests

　　(30) [Consumer Protection Review] Banking financial institutions shall establish a review system and working mechanism for the protection of consumers’ rights and interests, and incorporate them into the credit card business risk management and internal control system. Regularly and strictly review credit card format contracts to avoid clauses and contents that infringe on consumers’ legitimate rights and interests.

　　(31) [Reasonable Pricing] Under the premise of complying with laws and effectively covering risks, banking financial institutions should scientifically determine the level of credit card interest fees, improve the quality and efficiency of services, continue to take effective measures, and resolutely promote the reasonable decline of credit card interest fees. Except for cash withdrawal business, the total amount of interest charged by banking financial institutions to customers who default or fail to repay overdue shall not exceed the corresponding overdraft principal.

　　(32) [Data Security] Banking financial institutions shall strictly implement data security and other relevant laws and regulations and relevant provisions on credit management, follow the principle of "legality, justness and necessity", and clearly stipulate in the cooperation contract the purpose, manner and scope of the use of customer information by both parties, customer information confidentiality responsibilities and obligations, and effective measures to prevent and control the risk of customer information disclosure. It is not allowed to cooperate with institutions that conduct data processing in violation of laws and regulations.

　　Eight, strengthen the supervision and management of credit card business.

　　(33) [Daily Supervision] China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and its dispatched offices shall strengthen the risk identification, monitoring, early warning, prevention and control and disposal of credit card business of banking financial institutions, and continuously strengthen the extended monitoring and regulation of various business activities related to credit card business. In violation of the provisions of this notice, it shall be ordered to make corrections within a time limit, and relevant regulatory measures or administrative penalties may be taken according to the Banking Supervision Law of the People’s Republic of China and other laws, administrative regulations and relevant provisions.

　　(XXXIV) [Online Credit Card Business] In accordance with the principles of controllable risks, safety and order, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has promoted the innovation of the credit card industry and explored innovative modes such as online credit card business through pilot projects.

　　(35) [Strengthening Industry Self-discipline] The China Banking Association shall give full play to the industry self-discipline function, continuously improve the self-discipline rules and risk evaluation system of credit card business, and strengthen self-discipline punishment and notification.

　　(36) This notice shall come into force as of the date of promulgation. Banking financial institutions shall, within one month from the date of implementation of this notice, formulate and submit a rectification plan to the regulatory authorities, and clarify the rectification objectives and time schedule. If the credit card business that has been started does not conform to the provisions of this notice, the rectification shall be completed within 24 months.

　　(37) [Other Arrangements] If the relevant provisions before the issuance of this notice are inconsistent with this notice, this notice shall prevail. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission is responsible for the interpretation of this notice.

The picture shows the routine briefing of the State Council policy.

By 2035, China will become a world-class intellectual property power. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to the construction of a strong intellectual property country. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader made a series of important instructions, and personally deployed and formulated the Outline of Building a Powerful Intellectual Property Country (2021-2035), which drew a grand blueprint for building a powerful intellectual property country. On the afternoon of October 31st, the State Council held the fourth special study with the theme of "deeply implementing the strategy of strengthening the country with intellectual property rights, effectively supporting innovation-driven development". Premier Li Qiang presided over the study and made an important speech, emphasizing the need to thoroughly study and implement the important exposition and guiding spirit of the Supreme Leader General Secretary on intellectual property work, accelerate the construction of a strong country with intellectual property rights, better serve and build a new development pattern and promote high-quality development. Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang and other the State Council leaders also made clear demands. At the same time, recently, the the State Council executive meeting intensively deliberated and adopted the Special Action Plan for Patent Transformation and Application (2023-2025) and the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Patent Law of People’s Republic of China (PRC) (Revised Draft) and other important documents and regulations, made arrangements for relevant work, and played a set of "combination boxing" in the field of intellectual property rights.

What progress has been made in building a strong intellectual property country? On November 8, the State Council Press Office held a routine briefing on the State Council policy, introducing the situation of accelerating the construction of a strong intellectual property country and effectively supporting innovation-driven development.

Strengthen the legal protection of intellectual property rights

Report to the 20th CPC National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized strengthening the legal protection of intellectual property rights and forming a basic system to support all-round innovation.

"China National Intellectual Property Administration continues to strengthen legislation and strengthen the protection of the rule of law. Timely revise and improve the legal system of intellectual property rights, fill the gaps in intellectual property legislation, and refine various system provisions. In particular, accelerate the establishment of intellectual property protection rules for new fields and new formats, and lay a solid institutional foundation for opening up a new track for industrial development. " China National Intellectual Property Administration director Shen Changyu said.

Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council deliberated and passed the detailed rules for the implementation of the Patent Law (revised draft), which attracted wide attention from all walks of life. Zhang Peng, Director of the Department of Treaty and Law of China National Intellectual Property Administration, introduced that this revision has implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on strengthening intellectual property protection, and further improved the level of patent creation, utilization, protection, management and service in China. At the same time, this revision also highlights the characteristics of refining and perfecting relevant systems in accordance with the revised patent law, maintaining the consistency and stability of the patent system, making a good connection with relevant international treaties that China has joined, actively implementing international treaty obligations, and further integrating into international rules.

"Specifically, the revision mainly involves five aspects. First, improve the patent application system to facilitate applicants and innovative subjects; The second is to improve the patent examination system and improve the quality of patent examination; Third, strengthen patent administrative protection and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of patentees; Fourth, strengthen patent public service and promote the transformation and application of patents; The fifth is to add special provisions for international applications for design and strengthen the connection with The Hague Agreement. " Zhang Peng said.

The fourth revision of the Patent Law added the relevant provisions that the patent administrative department of the State Council can handle patent infringement disputes with great influence in the whole country. In June, 2021, China National Intellectual Property Administration issued the Measures for Administrative Adjudication of Major Patent Infringement Disputes and the announcement of accepting cases, and officially started the administrative adjudication of major patent infringement disputes.

At the briefing, Zhang Zhicheng, Director of the Intellectual Property Protection Department of China National Intellectual Property Administration, introduced the latest progress in this work. Up to now, China National Intellectual Property Administration has accepted and concluded two batches of 12 administrative adjudication cases of major patent infringement disputes. This year, China National Intellectual Property Administration handled the second batch of 10 cases involving standard essential patents in the field of information and communication according to laws and regulations, and finally the two parties involved reached a patent cross-licensing agreement, and the cases were closed according to law.

Explore the rules of data intellectual property protection

Data is called "new energy" in the information age, and it has become an important production factor alongside traditional factors such as land, capital and technology. China is a big country with data resources and digital economy. In 2022, the scale of digital economy has reached 50.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.5% of GDP, ranking second in the world.

In order to strengthen the protection of data resources, in recent years, China National Intellectual Property Administration has actively carried out research and pilot work on data intellectual property protection rules, and achieved remarkable results. "China National Intellectual Property Administration Research has put forward the basic principle of’ four sufficiency’ in constructing data intellectual property protection rules. First, give full consideration to data security, public interests and personal privacy; Second, fully grasp the unique attributes of data and the objective laws of property rights system; Third, fully respect the labor and related input of data processors; The fourth is to give full play to the supporting role of data in industrial digital transformation and high-quality economic development. At the same time, the study combed a series of key issues of data intellectual property protection. Including the object of protection, the subject of protection, the way of empowerment, the content of rights and interests, and the mode of application. " Shen Changyu introduced.

At present, China has carried out data intellectual property pilot projects in eight provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Shenzhen, and has issued more than 2,000 data intellectual property registration certificates to business entities.

From the perspective of the innovation and development of digital economy, China’s patent creation and reserves have been continuously strengthened. "Invention patents in the core industries of the digital economy have grown rapidly. In 2022, the number of invention patents granted in the core industries of domestic digital economy reached 296,000, accounting for 42.6% of the total number of invention patents granted in China. " Ge Shu, deputy director of the China National Intellectual Property Administration Patent Office and director of the Strategic Planning Department, said that in the next step, China National Intellectual Property Administration will continuously build and improve the rules system of intellectual property rights adapted to new technologies around industrial transformation and upgrading, continuously improve the efficiency of the transformation and application of intellectual property rights, and provide more powerful support for the digital transformation of the economy and society.

Empowering the development of private manufacturing industry

Manufacturing industry is the pillar industry of the country, and private enterprises are an important force to promote the development of manufacturing industry. Solid and powerful intellectual property work is empowering the development of private manufacturing and promoting the development of the real economy.

"China National Intellectual Property Administration promotes the precise docking of universities, scientific research institutions and private enterprises, strengthens the supply of patented technology, helps enterprises to develop new products, and enhances the confidence of innovative subjects in investing in manufacturing. Since last year, we have organized 22 provinces to carry out pilot projects for patent opening licenses, and nearly 10,000 licenses have been reached. " Shen Changyu introduced.

He introduced that China National Intellectual Property Administration has established a full chain intellectual property protection mechanism for private enterprises, from technology research and development to product manufacturing to market operation, so that private enterprises can dare to invest and operate with peace of mind. We will continue to improve the rapid collaborative protection system of intellectual property rights and the network of rights protection assistance to provide private enterprises with convenient, efficient and low-cost channels for rights protection. At the same time, China National Intellectual Property Administration cooperated closely with large state-owned banks to coordinate the launch of intellectual property financial products, and effectively increased the intellectual property financing support for private manufacturing enterprises. In the first three quarters of this year, the national patent and trademark pledge financing amounted to 495.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.9%. Among them, inclusive pledge projects with a financing amount of less than 10 million yuan accounted for 71.6%, benefiting 18,000 small and medium-sized enterprises, with a year-on-year increase of 41.7%.

"In the next step, China National Intellectual Property Administration will take the special action of patent transformation and application as an opportunity to further improve policies, strengthen protection and optimize services with relevant departments, especially to promote the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises through patent industrialization, cultivate and promote patent-intensive products, and promote private manufacturing. Investment in the field will better help the development of the real economy." Shen Changyu said. (Reporter CoCo WU)

K-line chart of high-voltage fast charging plate index day (Zhang Dawei drawing)

　　Near the end of the year, a number of investment strategies of brokers in 2024 have been released one after another, making the latest judgments on macroeconomics, market trends and sector allocation in the new year. Institutions generally believe that the macro economy will continue to improve next year, and A shares are expected to usher in valuation repair. However, there are different views among brokers on the judgment of market style.

　　Macroeconomic recovery is expected to continue next year.

　　Looking forward to the economic situation next year, many institutions believe that with the continuous efforts of policies, the domestic macro-economy will continue to improve and market confidence will be boosted.

　　Huaan Securities predicts that the endogenous growth of the domestic economy will be around 4.6% in 2024, and with the help of policies, it is still expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of around 5% throughout the year. The supporting factors mainly come from two aspects: on the one hand, with the endogenous recovery of the economy, consumption gradually stabilizes, which constitutes the basic disk of growth; On the other hand, under the policy guarantee, the investment side continues to exert its strength. One is to issue additional government bonds to support infrastructure investment, and the other is to stabilize real estate investment in affordable housing in urban villages. At the same time, the recovery of exports has driven the manufacturing investment to remain stable.

　　Dong Qi, the macro chief analyst of Guotai Junan Research Institute, believes that it is expected that the economic growth rate will continue to recover in 2024, the rhythm will be high and then low, and the pattern of low inflation will continue. PPI will turn positive in the second quarter, exports will improve relatively, and consumption and investment will remain resilient.

　　According to CITIC Securities, the domestic macro-economy is expected to be steadily restored and its vitality will reappear in 2024. The vitality of domestic micro-subject economy will be restored with the weakening of the US dollar and the strengthening of policies, and the economy will gradually return to the potential medium and high-speed growth level. In 2024, the domestic GDP is expected to increase by 5.1%, which is structurally characterized by "old kinetic energy for stability and new kinetic energy for progress".

　　A shares are expected to usher in valuation repair

　　Since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple internal and external factors, the A-share market has fluctuated obviously. How will the A-share market be interpreted in the new year? Many institutions expect optimism.

　　Zhang Xia, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities Strategy, said that looking forward to next year, the revenue and profit growth of A-share listed companies is expected to maintain a slight upward trend. In terms of funds, the implementation of the previous capital market reform measures will effectively improve the supply and demand of funds, and it is expected that the incremental funds will turn to net inflows in 2024. With the end of the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle and the shift to interest rate cuts and table expansion, the liquidity of the US dollar is expected to improve significantly. It is expected that foreign capital will resume a small net inflow trend in 2024, which will have a positive impact on A shares.

　　"Overall, driven by the above factors, the A-share market will show a volatile upward trend, and the main broad-based index is expected to record a slight increase." Zhang Xia said.

　　Zheshang Securities believes that the state of China’s economic operation is a key factor for the judgment of the general trend in 2024. With the help of the auxiliary description of inventory cycle, combined with the forecast of investment, export and consumption, it is predicted that A shares will show a trend of shock recovery in 2024.

　　CITIC Securities predicts that, from the rhythm point of view, the A-share repair will be more flexible in the first half of 2024, and may fluctuate and differentiate in the second half. It is expected that the New Year’s Eve to the first quarter of next year will be an obvious window to boost market confidence, and the slope of A-share repair will be the largest. With the verification of domestic economic targets and the slope of restoration, the reform of the investment side of the capital market continues to take effect, and the market is expected to continue to repair in the second quarter of next year, and the slope tends to be flat. It is expected that the market structure may begin to differentiate after the A-share valuation has undergone three stages of repair in the second half of next year.

　　What investment opportunities are worthy of attention?

　　Since the beginning of this year, the rotation of A-share theme has been accelerated, and the configuration is more difficult. Which investment direction is worth paying attention to next year, the dominant value style or the dominant growth strategy? In terms of style judgment, brokers have their own opinions, but the pre-judgment growth style is dominant.

　　Caitong Securities believes that the A-share market style is expected to be relatively balanced next year, and the valuation is expected to pick up. It is recommended to pay attention to the Science and Technology 100 Index and the Entrepreneurship 200 Index. Judging from the comparison with the historical bottom area and the characteristics of institutional heavyweights, many indicators of current A shares are at the bottom. Consumption, TMT and many other segments are cost-effective, and next year’s profit and valuation are expected to be Shuang Sheng, and the market is expected to warm up. Combined with multiple factors such as profit margin improvement and policy drive, the growth style of A shares may be relatively dominant next year.

　　Zhang Xia is also optimistic about the performance of growth style next year. He said that under the trend of bottoming out of profits and declining yield of US bonds, A shares may turn to growth style. From the perspective of industry, it is suggested to pay attention to science and technology, medicine and some cyclical stocks, and pay attention to the new energy sector after the second quarter, based on the comprehensive judgment of macro environment, science and technology cycle, supply and demand pattern of production capacity, changes in core driving factors of industry prosperity and market performance in the past two years.

　　Huaan Securities judges that the growth of the A-share market and the market of the consumer sector will alternate next year. Growing the main line of science and technology or leading the annual market, the main line of consumption is expected to follow closely. When the overall growth style is dominant, industries such as electronics and communications are preferred. With the stabilization of the real estate industry and the significant upward consumption of services, the consumption style is expected to gradually dominate.

　　Fang Yi, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Research Institute, believes that the small-cap theme market may cool down in the first half of next year, and the stable style of the large-cap market is expected to prevail. Since the beginning of this year, investors’ risk appetite has tended to be at both ends: small-cap growth stocks have risen, while large-cap blue-chip stocks have fallen. It is expected that the market of small-cap theme stocks with high-risk characteristics may ebb in the next stage, and investment opportunities may turn to large-cap stocks with low-risk characteristics. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities of fixed-income bonds and related products.

　　I. Oil reserves

　　The United States is one of the countries with the largest proven oil reserves in the world. As of January 1, 2004, its proven oil reserves were 22.7 billion barrels, ranking 11th in the world. More than 80% of the country’s reserves are concentrated in four States in the United States: Texas (24%), Alaska (22%), Louisiana (20%) and California (19%). Other oil-producing states include New Mexico, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Mississippi and North Dakota. Due to the over-exploitation in the late 1980s and the first half of 1990s, the oil reserves in the United States decreased rapidly. At present, the oil reserves in the United States decreased by about 20% compared with 1990.

　　Second, production

　　The United States is the third largest oil producer in the world after Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation. According to the statistics of American oil and gas magazine, the American oil output in 2003 was 7.9 million barrels per day, accounting for 9.2% of the world’s total oil output. The output of crude oil is 5.7 million barrels per day, and the rest is natural gas liquid (NGL). At present, the output is the lowest in the past 50 years, which is about 25% lower than the 10.6 million barrels per day in 1985. There are about 500,000 oil producing wells in the United States, but most of them belong to marginal wells. According to statistics in 2003, the main oil producing areas are concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico, Texas land oil fields, the northern slope of Alaska, California, Louisiana land oil fields, Oklahoma and Wyoming. In 2003, the United States drilled 30,151 new oil and gas wells, including 5,694 oil wells, 20,011 natural gas wells and 4,446 dry wells. Compared with 25,536 wells drilled in 2002, it increased by 18%. With the progress and development of geophysical prospecting technology and drilling equipment, the output of deepwater oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico has increased rapidly. At present, the output of deepwater oil fields accounts for two-thirds of the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States. Because most of the energy resources in the United States are concentrated in the territory of the federal government, and the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas are subject to many restrictions by the federal government, it is difficult to increase oil production significantly. Due to the low return on energy investment, the investment in the oil industry has been greatly reduced since 1980, which has led to the aging of the existing oil supply infrastructure in the United States, such as pipeline transportation and refinery processing, and the serious shortage of production capacity.At the same time, domestic production costs are higher than the international level, and environmental protection requirements are increasingly demanding. As a result, many refineries have been forced to close down. Relevant data show that no new refinery was built in the United States from the late 1980s to the 1990s. The petroleum refining and processing industries in the United States are mainly concentrated in Texas, Louisiana, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Washington, Ohio and Indiana. According to the statistics of British Petroleum Company (BP), the refining capacity of the United States in 2002 was 16.76 million barrels per day, accounting for about 20% of the world’s total refining capacity of 8,390 barrels per day. At present, the dominant oil companies in the American market are mainly ExxonMobil, Philips Continental, Chevron Texaco, Shell Oil, Frontier Oil, Marathon Oil and other companies. The U.S. Department of Energy predicted in its energy policy article that the oil production in the United States will drop from the current level of 580 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2020, and the Gulf of Mexico will play an important role in the future, and its share in domestic oil production will increase from the current 27% to 40% in 2010.

　　Third, consumption

　　The United States is the largest oil consumer in the world. In 2003, the consumption was 20.071 million barrels per day (equivalent to 914.3 million tons), an increase of 1.9% over the previous year, accounting for 25.1% of the total oil consumption in the world. In the current composition of energy consumption in the United States, oil accounts for 42%, coal accounts for 24%, natural gas accounts for 20%, nuclear energy accounts for 8-,and hydropower, solar energy and wind energy account for 4%. According to the statistics of British Petroleum Company (BP), in the composition of oil consumption in the United States in 2003, transportation oil accounted for about 67.5% of the total oil consumption, industrial oil accounted for about 24.2%, civil oil accounted for about 3.9%, electric oil accounted for about 2.4%, and commercial oil accounted for about 1.9%. After experiencing the oil crisis in the 1970s, the United States began to pay attention to improving energy utilization and saving energy, and the energy intensity continued to decline. At the end of 1990s, the energy required for producing every dollar decreased by 44% compared with that in 1970, and the annual per capita oil consumption decreased from 31 barrels in 1978 to 26 barrels in 2000, a decrease of 20%. On the whole, since 1973, American economy has increased by 126%, while energy consumption has only increased by 30%.

　　In order to improve the energy utilization rate, the federal government formulated the Energy Star program as early as the 1970s, and in the late 1980s, it set energy-saving standards for related industries, such as automobile manufacturing, household appliances and building lighting. Some energy-intensive production units, such as wood processing and papermaking, chemical industry, petrochemical refinery, metal smelting, food processing, ceramics and glass firing, have either adopted new energy-saving technologies or shut down and turned around, reducing the dependence of the economy on energy to some extent. In addition, the adjustment of macroeconomic structure and the rise of non-energy-intensive industries, such as communication and information technology, microelectronics and financial services, have also greatly reduced the energy intensity of the United States.

　　On the other hand, because the transportation industry in the United States accounts for more than 65% of its total oil consumption, the automobile industry in the United States developed rapidly during the period of low oil prices in the 1980s and 1990s, and the vehicle types became larger and larger, especially the fuel-intensive vehicles such as off-road vehicles and sports cars, which were favored by consumers. Therefore, the demand for petroleum products, mainly gasoline, has greatly increased. The US Department of Energy predicts that in the next 20 years, US oil consumption will increase by 33% and natural gas consumption by 50%, and by 2020, US oil consumption will reach 26-27 million barrels per day.

　　Iv. import

　　The United States has been a net energy importer since 1950s. After 1985, its dependence on imported oil increased significantly. In 2003, its import volume increased from 4.3 million barrels per day in the mid-1980s to 12.2 million barrels per day (equivalent to 605.1 million tons), an increase of 7.9% over the previous year, accounting for 62% of its total domestic oil demand and 26.8% of the world’s total imports. Among them, the import volume of crude oil is 9.645 million barrels per day and that of oil products is 2.609 million barrels per day. The main import sources are Canada (2.1 million barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1.8 million barrels per day), Mexico (1.6 million barrels per day) and Venezuela (1.4 million barrels per day). Among the sources of oil imports in the United States, more than two-fifths of oil imports come from member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. From 1973 to 2000, the dependence of American domestic market on imported oil increased from 35% to 52%, natural gas increased from 5% to 15%, and the proportion of energy imports in its total imports exceeded 10%. In order to meet the increasing domestic oil demand and ensure the safety of energy supply, the United States has formulated a multi-faceted global supply system strategy in its energy policy and implemented a diversified policy of oil and gas import sources. In addition to taking Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other oil-producing countries in the Middle East as the leading sources of supply, it also makes full use of the convenience of the North American Free Trade Area to consolidate the existing energy production and cooperation with Canada and Mexico.Increase investment in onshore and offshore oil and gas fields in Latin America and Central and South America countries such as Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Colombia, etc., and ensure the source of oil supply for the United States in this region. And set up the US-Russia oil and gas working group and the US-Kazakhstan oil and gas and commercial energy working group, increase investment in Aegean and African countries and regions, and make use of technological advantages to carry out deep-sea oil and gas exploration and production in the Atlantic basin between Canada and the Caribbean, Brazil and West Africa.

　　V. Inventory

　　Strategic reserve oil

　　After being hit by the oil embargo imposed by the oil-producing countries in East Arab in the early 1970s, President Carter signed the energy policy and energy-saving law in 1975 and decided to establish a strategic oil reserve. On July 21, 1977, about 412,000 barrels of Saudi light crude oil were injected into the salt cave on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico as the first strategic storage. According to the relevant laws, only when the domestic energy supply or import is blocked, or the oil price rises sharply due to the oil embargo, which may seriously threaten national security or economic operation, can the President of the United States decide and order the use of strategic reserve oil. On November 13, 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the strategic oil reserve would be increased to 700 million barrels. At present, the strategic oil storage capacity of the United States is 727 million barrels. The International Energy Agency requires that the United States’ oil reserves (strategic and non-strategic stocks) should reach 90 days’ import. The maximum withdrawal amount of strategic oil reserves is 4.3 million tons/day, and it takes about 13 days from the withdrawal of stocks to entering the US market. In order to establish strategic oil reserves, the United States has invested a total of 21 billion US dollars, of which 4 billion US dollars are used to purchase oil storage facilities and 17 billion US dollars to purchase reserve oil. The reserve oil will come from 20 countries, of which light crude oil accounts for about one-third of the total reserve oil and two-thirds is heavy crude oil (crude oil with sulfur content above 2%). As of August 24, 2004, the United States had 667 million barrels of strategic reserve oil, which was equivalent to 55 days’ import at that time. Among them, 270 million barrels of light crude oil and 397 million barrels of heavy oil.(In 1985, the strategic stock oil reached the import volume equivalent to 118 days at that time). The main oil storage locations are related states in South America, such as Louisiana and Texas, which are close to the Gulf of Mexico. The strategic reserve oil of the United States has played an important role in stabilizing the international oil market. Since the establishment of the strategic oil reserve, only when Iraq attacked Kuwait in early 1991 and caused the price of the international oil market to rise sharply, according to the allocation quota of the international energy agency, President Bush ordered the Ministry of Energy to use 33.75 million barrels of crude oil when launching the operation desert storm to calm the price rise in the oil market. But in the end, the United States only used 17.3 million barrels, which effectively brought the international oil price down sharply.

　　Commercial petroleum inventory

　　According to api gravity data, by the end of July, 2004, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 298 million barrels, up by 4.6% over the same period of last year, the inventory of gasoline was 212 million barrels, up by 5.2%, and the inventory of other oil products was 158 million barrels. At the end of July, the national inventory of various oil products (excluding strategic oil reserves) was 959.6 million barrels, a slight increase of 0.2% over a year ago.

　　VI. The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on American Economy

　　Since 2003, especially since August this year, the sharp and rapid rise in oil prices has caused the international oil market to fall into panic again. The New York Mercantile Exchange’s September West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures price broke through the psychological defense line of $40 and $45 per barrel in just a few weeks, and reached the $50 mark. Finally, on August 20, it fell back after hitting $49.40. Compared with the beginning of the year, oil prices have increased by about 50%.

　　People in the industry have consistent views on the reasons for the rising oil prices, mainly as follows: 1. Compared with other commodities, the monopoly of oil is still strong. In order to maintain the selling price, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been adopting the sales strategy of limiting production and insuring prices in recent years, but the supply has decreased. 2. The international market demand shows a slow growth trend, and the oil import demand of emerging countries, especially China and Indian countries, rises sharply. 3. The geopolitical situation is turbulent, and anti-government forces in Iraq threaten to blow up oil production facilities, kidnap foreign companies as hostages and carry out terrorist activities. The political turmoil caused by Venezuela’s domestic election has affected its oil production and export, and the protracted tax evasion case by KOS Oil Company in Russia has caused market panic. 4. Speculation in the oil futures market has intensified. As soon as traders encounter trouble, they will take the opportunity to speculate, which will contribute to the rise and fall of oil prices. 5. The production capacity of the member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is close to the limit, and their ability to regulate oil supply is declining.

　　As for the possible impact of this oil price on the economy, there are different opinions. As the impact of oil price fluctuation on economy is lagging behind, judging from several oil crises since 1970s, every crisis is always accompanied by high inflation and economic recession. For example, the first oil crisis when the Arab countries imposed an oil embargo led to a serious global recession in 1973-1975, the oil crisis triggered by the Iran-Iraq war in 1979 led to a global recession in 1981-1982, and the oil price shock triggered by the Gulf War plunged the western industrialized countries into a relatively moderate economic recession in 1990-1991. Therefore, some economists believe that this sharp rise in oil prices will inevitably bring considerable negative impact to the world economy. Take the United States as an example. In 2004, its GDP increased by 4.5% in the first quarter, and decreased to 3% in the second quarter. Affected by the oil price shock, many American economists have lowered their economic growth forecasts in the second half of the year, arguing that high oil prices will affect consumer spending, reduce investment, reduce national real income, keep the unemployment rate high, widen the foreign trade deficit, and may lead to inflation. What’s more, it is believed that the American economy may experience stagflation or fall into recession again in 2005. However, some institutions, such as the Federal Reserve Board of the United States, are optimistic that the impact of this oil price shock on the US economy is limited, and it will not lead to a new economic crisis. The reason is that from a macro perspective, there has been no fundamental change in the relationship between supply and demand in the international oil market.The oil supply is sufficient, the demand for oil in the United States has not increased significantly, and it is backed by a considerable oil inventory. More importantly, the tolerance for rising oil prices is greatly enhanced compared with the past, so it can cope with price fluctuations in the international oil market in a short period of time. Once speculation subsides, the oil market will return to its original pattern.

　　The author believes that oil is a strategic scarce resource. Although major oil importing countries have been practicing energy conservation and improving energy utilization for a long time, the status of oil as a major energy source cannot be effectively replaced for a long time to come. With the continuous development of the world economy, especially the rapid economic development of developing countries such as China and India, the demand for oil in the international market is bound to increase. At the same time, the international geopolitical pattern is turbulent, especially the terrorist activities in major oil-producing countries such as the Middle East, which will always be an unstable link in the supply chain of the international oil market. Therefore, in the long run, oil prices will continue to rise with the increase in demand caused by the development of the world economy. The possibility of a sharp rise in oil prices in the short term due to temporary factors and speculation is not ruled out. From the perspective of the United States, as it experienced the oil crisis in the 1970s, it adjusted its macro-energy policy in time, paid attention to the diversification of energy composition, increased the development of natural gas resources, nuclear energy and other alternative energy sources, improved energy utilization rate and focused on energy conservation, diversified import channels, and a huge strategic oil reserve, so its overall resilience to resist the energy shortage crisis was greatly enhanced compared with the past, and short-term oil price fluctuations had relatively little impact on the economy. Therefore, although this oil price shock will definitely affect its economic growth in the second half of 2004, it is estimated that it will not have a reversible impact on its economic activities, and the specific impact will need further close attention.

　　According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of Energy, 48% of the total crude oil consumed in the United States is used to produce gasoline and other fuels. Due to the popularity of multi-purpose vehicles with high horsepower and high fuel consumption, the consumption of gasoline in the United States has increased by 24% since 1990. Since September and November, especially since this year, due to the intensified price fluctuation in the international primary raw material market and domestic natural disasters, especially the hurricane that frequently visited the relevant States in the southern United States last year and this year (which is also the gathering place of many large American oil refineries), the domestic petroleum products in the United States, such as gasoline and heating oil, have shown a tight supply market situation, which has led to. It is estimated that gasoline consumption will increase by 48% over the current level in 2025. Because domestic production is far from meeting the market demand, the proportion of imported gasoline in the total gasoline consumption in the United States has soared from 4% in 1995 to about 10% at present. According to the forecast of the Energy Information Administration, by 2025, the gasoline consumption in the United States will increase from the current 8.9 million barrels per day to 13.3 million barrels per day. By then, gasoline alone will account for half of the crude oil consumption in the United States. At the same time, the proportion of diesel oil, heating oil and aviation fuel oil in the demand for refined oil will also increase greatly. In sharp contrast, since the second half of the 1990s, the domestic refining capacity in the United States has increased by less than 1%.

　　The main reasons for the imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market are:

　　Since the 1970s, due to the persistent surplus of international crude oil market, oil prices have been hovering at a low price for a long time. At this stage, American refineries have maintained a low rate of return and a low rate of return on investment, which greatly inhibited investors from expanding refinery facilities and launching new refineries. In fact, since 1976, the United States has not built a new refinery (just increasing the production scale of existing facilities). At present, the number of oil refineries has decreased by more than half compared with 1981, while gasoline consumption has increased by 45%. According to the statistics of the relevant departments of the US Department of Energy, the number of refineries in the United States has decreased from 324 in 1981 to 148 (including 4 idle ones). These refineries are located in 32 States in the United States, with an overall crude oil processing capacity of 17.12 million barrels per day. In the past ten years, nearly 50 refineries have closed down, and most of the existing enterprises have outdated equipment and various accidents. The reason is mainly attributed to the large-scale reorganization of oil refining enterprises after the two oil crises in the 1970s, such as selling and closing excess production equipment, which led to the reduction of the number of refineries in this industry. In addition to the overcapacity factors that affected the new investment in the oil refining industry in the 1980s and 1990s, various regulations in the United States, such as more stringent environmental laws, clean air laws, relevant regulations on air quality, water quality, waste and automobile exhaust emissions, more additional government licenses and regulations to further reduce the sulfur content in gasoline and diesel, in addition,Refineries also need to produce gasoline and diesel with different standards according to federal standards, state government standards and local government standards, and it takes time to apply for more complicated government licenses. Clean fuel standards (such as the introduction of various environmental protection standards one after another, the increasingly strict emission standards for automobile exhaust, etc.) undoubtedly make refinery production more difficult and new capital investment increase. According to statistics from the United States, in the past 10 years, the refining industry in the United States has invested about $47 billion in environmental protection projects, mainly for producing low-sulfur unleaded gasoline that is more conducive to environmental protection. Under the restriction of internal and external environment, many oil refining enterprises have high input and low output, while some refineries are forced to close down because they cannot adapt to the increasingly fierce industry competition.

　　List of refinery distribution and crude oil processing capacity in the United States

　　Number of refineries by state, among which idle number crude oil processing capacity

　　Idle processing capacity (barrel/day)

　　Delaware 1 175000

　　Georgia 1 1 28000 28000

　　New Jersey 6 1 666000 51000

　　Pennsylvania 5,770,000

　　Virginia 1 58600

　　West Virginia 1 19400

　　Illinois 4 896000

　　Indiana 2 433000

　　Kansas 3 296200

　　Kentucky 2 227500

　　Michigan 1 74000

　　Minnesota 2 335000

　　North Dakota 1 58000

　　Ohio 4 551400

　　Oklahoma 5 484961

　　Tennessee 1,180,000

　　Wisconsin 1 33000

　　Alabama 3 1 130200 16700

　　Arkansas 2 76800

　　Louisiana 17 2772723

　　Mississippi 4 364800

　　New Mexico 3 112600

　　Texas 26 1 4628491 880

　　Colorado 2 87000

　　Montana 4 181200

　　Utah 5 167350

　　Wyoming 5,152,000

　　Alaska 6 373500

　　California 21 2026788

　　Hawaii 2 147500

　　Nevada 1 1707

　　Oregon 1 0

　　Washington 5 616150

　　The United States totals 148 4 17124870 118580.

　　Puerto Rico 2 1 109500 42000

　　Virgin Islands 1,495,000

　　As can be seen from the above table, refineries in the United States are mainly concentrated in Texas, California and Louisiana. The above three States account for 43.2% of the total number of refineries in the United States, and the crude oil refining capacity accounts for 55.1% of the United States. Texas alone accounts for 17.6% and 27.0% of the total in the United States.

　　Geographically, refineries in the United States are mainly concentrated in Texas and Louisiana near the Gulf of Mexico in the southern United States.

　　About 25% of the existing refinery production capacity in the United States is controlled by foreign enterprises. Mainly operated by large petrochemical multinational companies, such as BP, Shell Chemical Company, Dow Chemical Company, ExxonMobil Company, Texaco Company, Continental Philips Company, Chevron Company, Marathon Schlander Company, Citgo Petroleum Corp., Motiva Enterprises LLC, Murphy Oil USA Inc., Valero, Total Petrochemical Inc.,

　　Western refining co., chalmette refining LLC., premcor refining group Inc., etc.

　　Since the beginning of the 21st century, due to the turbulent world political situation and increasing demand, the price of international crude oil market has been rising, which has led to an increase in market demand for oil products. Although refineries are operating at full capacity, the demand is still in short supply. At the same time, due to the aging equipment of many refineries, accidents continue (for example, BP’s refinery in Texas suffered two accidents, including the explosion in the first half of 2005, which caused dozens of casualties and heavy losses), and the shutdown of refineries along the Mexican coast caused by two hurricanes in August and September 2005, as well as speculation in the international oil futures market, which further aggravated the shortage of oil products in the US oil market, and the prices of motor gasoline and diesel oil soared.

　　The Impact of Hurricane Katrina and Rita on American Petroleum Refining Industry

　　In late August and late September, 2005, two successive hurricanes Katrina and Rita swept through the Gulf of Mexico, which not only brought serious casualties and huge property losses to Louisiana and eastern Texas, but also caused heavy losses to the oil refining industry in the United States.

　　According to the statistics of the US Department of Energy, the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is 1.5 million barrels per day (equivalent to 75 million tons), which is one of the important oil producing areas in the United States. There are dozens of large refineries of multinational oil companies in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi near the Gulf of Mexico. For example, there are 17 refineries along the Mexican coast in Texas, including 10 refineries in Houston, with a daily refining capacity of 2.3 million barrels of crude oil, accounting for 13% of the total refining capacity in the United States. There are four refineries in Beaumont and port arthur, with a daily processing capacity of 1.1 million barrels of crude oil, accounting for 7% of the total refining capacity in the United States. Exxon Mobil (ExxonMobil) has 348,500 barrels per day, Motiva (Shell) has 285,000 barrels per day, Total has 233,500 barrels per day, and Valero has 255,000 barrels per day (according to the statistics of the US Department of Energy on January 1, 2005). There are three refineries in Christie, Kobos, with a daily processing capacity of 586,000 barrels of crude oil, accounting for 3% of the total refining capacity in the United States. The three refineries in Lake Charles, Louisiana, which were severely hit by this hurricane, were completely shut down. They were Citgo, with a refining capacity of 324,300 barrels per day, ConocoPhillips, 239,400 barrels per day and Calcasleu, with a refining capacity of 30,000 barrels per day.

　　Affected by the hurricane, the production capacity of about 3.5 million barrels per day (equivalent to 20% of the country’s total refining capacity) was temporarily closed. Among them, the refineries in Port Arthur in eastern Texas and Lake Charles in Louisiana suffered from wind disaster or power failure, and the refining capacity of 1.7 million barrels of crude oil per day completely stopped (accounting for about 10% of the national total refining capacity). And thus triggered a sharp rise in the retail price of gasoline in the southern region.

　　Crude oil production and refinery processing capacity in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States

　　(Figures as of August 2005)

　　Proven reserves of Zhoubie crude oil

　　(Million barrels) Ranks crude oil output in the United States.

　　(1,000 barrels per day) Ranks the number of refineries in the United States and ranks the processing capacity of refineries in the United States.

　　(million barrels) market share in the United States

　　USA 148 1712.49

　　Texas 4583 2 1073 2 26 1 4.6 26

　　Louisiana 452 8 228 5 17 2.8

　　Alabama 52 19 20 16 3 0.114

　　Mississippi 169 14 47 13 4 0.365

　　Georgia nothing 1 0.028

　　Florida 68 17 8 20 0 0

　　Oklahoma 588 6 171 7 5 0.485

　　Arkansas 50 20 18 17 2 0.077

　　Subtotal 5962 1565 58.469

　　Source: Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, Census Bureau and National Petroleum News "Market Information in 2004".

　　As can be seen from the data in the above table, the Gulf of Mexico in South America occupies a considerable share in the US energy market in terms of crude oil production, refinery quantity and processing capacity, and also has a certain impact on domestic and even international oil prices.

　　After learning from a painful experience, the US government decided to review the existing oil refining industry mechanism in the United States to find out whether there is monopoly and price manipulation in the industry after consumers were hit by the recent sharp rise in oil prices and complained. To this end, the CEOs of Exxon Oil Company, Shell Oil Company, BP America Company, Continental Oil Company and Chevron Company, which account for 42% of the national oil refining capacity, were invited to attend the Senate hearing to explain why they made profits as high as $32.8 billion in a quarter from June to September 2005.

　　In order to cope with the increasing demand for oil products and reduce price fluctuations, members of the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States have proposed new refinery expansion bills, and some have proposed to build new refineries in areas where the unemployment rate is 20% higher than the national average. This will not only achieve the purpose of building refineries, but also increase employment. Some suggest giving preferential tax treatment or tax exemption to attract investors, and some suggest using abandoned military bases as the site of new refineries, which can cause less opposition from nearby residents. However, judging from the current actual situation, a substantial increase in the supply of domestic oil products in the United States can not be achieved overnight. Although the oil supply can be increased to a certain extent by restructuring the refining industry again, combining and expanding existing refineries, improving production processes and processes, even those refineries that have not yet reached full production are limited in their production capacity. The fundamental way to solve the problem is to build a new refinery, but it is expected to face great resistance. The first is the site selection. Many people will agree to build the refinery, a potential pollution source and a "time bomb", in their own backyard. Secondly, it is complicated and time-consuming to apply for relevant permits and obtain approval from competent authorities at all levels. The most important thing is to build a new refinery with large investment, low average profit level and long payback period. The investment in building a new refinery is usually as high as several billion dollars, and even a small refinery needs about one billion dollars.However, the sharp fluctuation of the international oil market price has increased many uncertainties in predicting the investment recovery period and return rate of refineries, which has inhibited the investment desire of potential investors. There is also a recognized view that due to the continuous integration and merger of the oil industry in the past few decades, most small companies with little capital and weak technical strength have been washed out or merged. At present, most of the companies operating in the market are multinational companies, and the market participants in this industry are relatively few, and the competition is not as fierce as other industries. In other words, the monopoly is strong. The rise in oil prices has been expected by these companies for many years, so they will never give up this opportunity to make a lot of money. Building a new refinery will undoubtedly increase competitors and reduce the average profit rate, so there is little interest in these current vested companies.　　

Editor: Wang Yuxi

CCTV News:Today (December 22nd), a series of exciting news about economy, finance and engineering construction were announced, involving China’s fiscal policy, RMB deposit interest rate, renovation of old residential areas, food security and many other aspects. A series of "hard core" measures have been introduced intensively, and China’s economy is stable and confident.

Data on China’s economic vitality

Lan Foan, Minister of Finance, said at the National Financial Work Conference that in 2024, it is necessary to strengthen the countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, moderately increase efforts, improve quality and increase efficiency. In terms of "moderate afterburner", we will maintain an appropriate expenditure intensity and release a positive signal next year.

Five major commercial banks cut interest rates on RMB deposits

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of Communications announced that they would lower the listing interest rate of RMB deposits from today. Including call deposit, lump-sum deposit and withdrawal, lump-sum deposit and withdrawal, deposit and withdrawal of interest, etc. Among them, the three-month, six-month and one-year time deposits were lowered by 0.1 percentage point, the two-year time deposits were lowered by 0.2 percentage point, and the three-year and five-year time deposits were lowered by 0.25 percentage point.

Shanghai Customs: Shanghai’s total foreign trade value reached a new high in the first 11 months.

In the first 11 months of this year, Shanghai’s total import and export value reached 3.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, a record high. Among them, exports were 1.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%; Imports reached 2.27 trillion yuan, up by 0.8%. Shanghai’s integrated circuit field is showing a booming trend of import and export.

In the first 11 months, China’s foreign non-financial direct investment increased by 18.4% year-on-year

1— In November, China’s foreign non-financial direct investment was 814.54 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year. Among them, the non-financial direct investment of Chinese enterprises in building the "Belt and Road" countries was 201.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%.

The overall development plan of two cooperation zones in Hengqin Qianhai was released.

Yesterday, the Overall Development Plan of Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone and the Overall Development Plan of Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone were released. According to the overall plan, Hengqin Cooperation Zone should build a new high-level open system integrated with Macao, and constantly improve the new system of Guangdong-Macao cooperation, joint construction, joint management and sharing. Qianhai plays a greater role in deepening Shenzhen-Hong Kong cooperation, supporting Hong Kong’s economic and social development and participating in international cooperation at a high level.

People’s livelihood and well-being

By November, 53,000 old residential areas had been newly renovated.

This year, all localities promoted urban renewal in an orderly manner, and newly started to renovate 53,000 old urban communities. By the end of November, about 66,000 urban renewal projects had been implemented nationwide. Among them, 53,000 old urban communities were newly renovated, benefiting 8.82 million households; Install 32,000 elevators, add 746,000 parking spaces, and add 14,000 community service facilities such as old-age care and nursery; The transformation of urban gas and other pipelines is about 100,000 kilometers.

Engineering construction

Closure of the World’s Largest Span Steel Truss Arch Bridge for Highway and Railway

Today, the Tianxingzhou Waterway Bridge of Changtai Yangtze River Bridge is closed, and the main span of the Waterway Bridge is 388 meters, which is the largest span steel truss arch bridge in the world. Changtai Yangtze River Bridge, with a total length of 10.03 kilometers, connects Changzhou and Taizhou, Jiangsu Province. It is the world’s first river-crossing passage integrating expressways, intercity railways and ordinary highways, and it is planned to be completed in the first half of 2025.

Reconstruction and expansion project of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Expressway (Tianjin section) started.

Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Expressway was opened to traffic in September 1993, which is an important traffic trunk line connecting Beijing, Hebei and Tianjin. At the same time, as the starting point of G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, it is also known as the "golden channel" in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. As an important traffic trunk line between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the reconstruction and expansion project of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Expressway (Tianjin section) was officially launched today, and the reconstruction and expansion period is expected to be three years.

Energy supply guarantee

The total installed capacity of renewable energy in China accounts for more than 50% of the total installed capacity of power generation.

In 2023, China’s energy security and stable supply capacity will be steadily enhanced, and the pace of energy green and low-carbon transformation will be accelerated. The total installed capacity of renewable energy continuously exceeded 1.3 billion and 1.4 billion during the year, reaching 1.45 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than 50% of the total installed capacity of power generation in China; Renewable energy generates 3 trillion kWh of electricity, accounting for about one-third of the electricity consumption of the whole society, and has become a new force to ensure power supply. In 2023, the total installed capacity of electricity reached 2.9 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. Among them, the total installed capacity of scenery has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, and its main position in the newly installed power has been further consolidated.

Daguo granary

Heilongjiang grain production has achieved "20 consecutive bumper harvests"

According to the data of grain output released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2023, the grain production in Heilongjiang Province has achieved "20 consecutive harvests" with a total output of 155.764 billion Jin. Now, the grain storage and processing enterprises in all parts of Heilongjiang are working at full speed to speed up the acquisition. Up to now, Heilongjiang has acquired 48.94 billion Jin of new grain.